{"id":2575,"date":"2020-01-09T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-01-09T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/se-trends.de\/?p=2575"},"modified":"2020-01-09T08:35:30","modified_gmt":"2020-01-09T07:35:30","slug":"2020-complexity-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.se-trends.de\/en\/2020-komplexitaet-wandel\/","title":{"rendered":"Complexity and change - also in 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A year ago, I made a few predictions for the coming year. There is no doubt that these topics have dominated the last twelve months. What else happened in 2019 and why these topics will be relevant for years to come is discussed below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.se-trends.de\/en\/2019-complexity-and-change\/\">Trends from 2019<\/a> have been fulfilled: Complexity and change were hotly debated topics. However, not always in the way I described last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Complexity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last year, I saw \"Predictive Product Development\" as one of the approaches that could get to grips with this complexity. Jama tried its hand in this field with the product \"Jama Analyze\", which is no longer on the market in this form. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, this does not mean that analysis is not useful, on the contrary: more and more tools for <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Business Intelligence (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/de.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Business_Intelligence\" target=\"_blank\">Business Intelligence<\/a> are roaming the market, and <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Process-Mining (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/de.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Process-Mining\" target=\"_blank\">Process mining<\/a> seems to me to be a very exciting approach for converting the results of the analysis into concrete added value. However, both approaches are (still) rarely used in product development. This will certainly change in the medium term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>Is testing the solution to increasing complexity? In the medium term at best.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, when I look at the activities in systems engineering, the topic of testing suddenly seems to have gained considerable popularity. This is not surprising: it has long been proven that early testing (at all levels) drastically minimizes risks and increases quality. Nevertheless, testing is traditionally the first thing to be canceled when delivery deadlines are threatened. Word has finally gotten around that this does not work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is also a lot of catching up to do when it comes to testing. For example, tests are often defined far too late. Early testing is also a suitable means of increasing quality and finding errors - even if tests are not carried out until much later. Deficiencies in the requirements or missing requirements often become apparent just by defining tests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Change<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Change is not only not complete, it is actually accelerating. And there really is no end in sight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With no end in sight, change is becoming a strategic issue and therefore goes far beyond systems engineering. While last year I primarily dealt with tactics for change (in the form of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.se-trends.de\/en\/18-product-development-pattern\/\">development patterns<\/a>), we need to take a different approach at a strategic level and think long-term. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>Dealing strategically with accelerated change requires long-term thinking - what will the world be like in 5-10 years?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At first glance, this may seem counterintuitive: but what good is it to solve an acute problem that, thanks to technological change, may no longer exist when I'm finished?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One example is the handling of electronic patient data: This is an acute problem and there is a lot of activity in this area to define standards. But when there is finally a standard and we start developing a solution, it may be ready for the market in 2-5 years. By then, the problem may no longer even exist, as structured formats will no longer be needed thanks to machine learning and artificial intelligence. Established companies and market leaders in particular need to think about what the world will look like in 5-10 years' time and then work towards this. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Netflix has done this in an impressive way: In 2011, Netflix stopped shipping DVDs and was thought by many to be crazy to ramp up such a lucrative business model. But back then, Netflix had already recognized that DVDs would become massively less important and that streaming was the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Modeling<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I am closely following developments in the field of modeling and see huge potential there. However, in my opinion, the time is still not ripe for it. But in my opinion, this is precisely one of the technologies that will bring about enormous change in the long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The time is not really ripe yet, and I don't expect any really major developments in 2020. But if you want to think several years ahead, you should definitely keep an eye on the modeling.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A year ago, I made a few predictions for the coming year. There is no doubt that these topics have dominated the last twelve months. What else happened in 2019 and why these topics will be relevant for years to come is discussed below.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2578,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"_kad_post_classname":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[38,43],"tags":[426,427,204,63,376],"class_list":["post-2575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","category-industrie","tag-426","tag-427","tag-komplexitaet","tag-modellierung","tag-wandel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.se-trends.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2575","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.se-trends.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.se-trends.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.se-trends.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.se-trends.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2575"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.se-trends.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2575\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.se-trends.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2578"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.se-trends.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2575"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.se-trends.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2575"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.se-trends.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2575"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}