5 predictions for systems engineering in 2021

SE-Trends readers took an active part in the survey launched in mid-December: What will happen in systems engineering in 2021? Some of the answers surprised me, here are the five predictions.

1. better tools for distributed work in systems engineering

2020 was one of the worst years I've ever experienced. And I'm not alone in this opinion: there is joy everywhere that we are finally leaving this year behind us. But bad or not, it has changed the job market forever. Of course, these changes go far beyond systems engineering. Zoom, Teams and other video conferencing systems are the most visible.

But so far, this has not been reflected in systems engineering-specific solutions. Some readers are convinced that this will change in 2021. What this will look like is not yet clear. But we should keep a closer eye on the following areas:

• Collaboration across tools: Nowadays, almost every tool has a chat function, but at best this is only available via emails sent in the email program. The portfolio providers (IBM, PTC, Siemens, etc.) will certainly improve cross-module collaboration. Perhaps a third-party provider will also manage to develop a functioning cross-tool solution.
• Cross-tool views: The disconnect between different tools is still a huge problem. Without meetings with whiteboards and notes on the table, the pressure has also increased here (quite independently of the increasing complexity). There are already solutions here, such as Smartfacts and Tom Sawyer.
• Cross-tool traceability: The topic is not new, but heavyweight solutions such as OSLC (open) or Tasktop (proprietary) are not really getting off the ground. Perhaps Time for something new? Approaches like Zapier are much more lightweight, approaches like Relatics (AI) are breaking new ground.

2. will 2021 be the year of Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE)?

Several readers suggested that the activities around the MBSE will accelerate. This will be reflected in the labor market, but also in the tools. One reader suspects that variant management of models will become more widespread. Lemontree for system models or Big Lever and Pure Variants for requirements models were mentioned here.

2021 brings us an employee market for MBSE jobs

Of the "big" modeling tools, only one is still independent, namely Sparx Enterprise Architect. Here a reader made the prediction that Sparx will be bought up in 2021. We'll see...

Likewise, several SysML 2.0 mentioned. However, I fear that there will be a lot of talk but little action. After all, the standard will first be adopted in an official version in 2021. This does not mean that we will have tools the next day. Many companies that have invested long and heavily in SysML 1.x will not just switch over.

3. more artificial intelligence in products and tools

Artificial intelligence (AI) has been mentioned by readers in two different contexts. Firstly, we are already seeing more and more products claiming to work with AI, from heating thermostats to self-driving cars. Even if there is a lot of hype, the trend is real and has a direct impact on our work. In particular, the scope of development is expanding. Training data for machine learning is now part of the system to be developed and must be handled accordingly.

The hype surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) is only just beginning

The Gartner Hype Cycle 2020 shows AI and ML on the rise, before the peak of the hype

The second aspect of AI is its use in development. The aim here is to support the developer. I recently investigated this in the context of natural language requirements. However, I was disappointed by the state of the art. I am actively working on a solution in this area myself.

4. automotive as a driver of change

The prediction that the automotive industry will provide one or more impulses was also interesting. However, the reader was unable to predict what kind of stimulus this would be. In Germany in particular, we all hope that it will be a positive stimulus. VW has put the diesel scandal behind it and is focusing on electrification. However VW has developed the id.3 has not covered itself in glory. Other major OEMs are also stumbling between electrification and their own repositioning as mobility providers or Software company. News like this makes me nervous, after all, human lives are at stake here. And the scale is completely different to back then 2009-2011 in the Toyota scandal. Nevertheless, 2021 is likely to be the year of upheaval in the automotive industry.

5. at least one major scandal

Speaking of scandals, one reader pointed out that the next big scandal is overdue. This could well be a software-induced disaster with fatalities, in the style of the Boeing 737-MAX scandal. Let's hope that our automotive industry doesn't cut corners in the wrong place in its transformation to more software.

A scandal could also be triggered by cybercrime. Attack security is still a very hot topic, yet one that is criminally neglected by many companies. Due to the increase in distributed working, many companies are more vulnerable to Social engineering become.

Conclusion

Let's be surprised and hope that 2021 will be better than the past coronavirus year, and not just for Systems Engineering!

Image source: Enrique Meseguer from Pixabay