What the hype cycle means for systems engineering
New innovations have always been presented as so revolutionary by the media that disappointment was inevitable. It doesn't matter whether we're talking about the Internet of Things, multimedia in the 90s or "Railway Mania" in the 1840s. However, these innovations often make a comeback years later, which hardly anyone notices. This effect is known as the hype cycle and is relevant for systems engineers.
Gartner hype cycle
The hype cycle was started by Gartner a provider of analyses. Here, the "hype" on the vertical axis is plotted against time on the horizontal axis. Here we see a characteristic curve:
- Technological trigger: In the beginning, the innovation is still unknown, but begins to attract interest. Promising concepts and case studies are picked up by the press.
- The peak of exaggerated expectations: Public interest reaches the peak of the hype, where many expectations are completely exaggerated. The failures (in terms of expectations) start to pile up.
- Valley of disappointments: Public interest disappears just as quickly as it appeared, and many call the innovation dead.
- Path of enlightenment: While the public hardly notices any of this, an understanding of the innovation is slowly emerging. Researchers are recognizing realistic fields of application and the limits of the technology.
- Plateau of productivity: In the end, innovation becomes an integral part of the world, the benefits and limitations are understood. How high the plateau is compared to the summit depends on many factors.
The hype cycle usually runs for several years, but it can also be decades (nuclear fusion, space travel).
Example: Autonomous driving
Autonomous driving is a good example of an innovation that follows the hype cycle. The Announcement from Google in 2012The announcement of having covered 500,000 km autonomously hit like a bomb. The race for autonomous driving had begun.
But we still don't have any autonomous cars on our public roads, apart from a few cities with pilot projects. There have also been several accidents in the meantime that have Enthusiasm for autonomous driving considerably dampened have.
The dreams of driverless driving were all too bold
Frank Weber, Head of Development BMW
But autonomous vehicles are spreading unnoticed (at least by non-experts): on hospital and university campuses, as the "last mile" of local public transport, as transporters in factories and warehouses.
According to Auto Tech Review fully autonomous driving (level 5) is still before the peak of exaggerated expectations, while level 4 has already passed this point.
The hype cycle in systems engineering
So what does all this have to do with systems engineering? On the one hand, innovation is important for the life of a company, now more than ever. Only innovations make it possible not to be overtaken by the competition.
When we look at innovations, we need to consider two things in particular:
- Where is the innovation in the hype cycle? Betting on an innovation that is before the peak is much riskier than one that has already passed the peak. At the same time, the earlier the innovation is introduced, the greater the potential. The expected lifetime of the system should also be taken into account.
- Does the organization have the staying power to benefit from the innovation? Depending on the phase of innovation, management must be prepared to wait several years for the return on investment. If this is not the case, we should rather focus on established technologies (which are on the plateau).
In principle, companies must be able to react quickly. However, when it comes to innovations that are in the hype cycle, this can be essential for survival.
